中文摘要：

利用区域气候模式（RegCM3）敏感性数值试验模拟＂三江源＂地区湿地变化对区域气候的影响。依据2000年美国EOS/MODIS遥感数据解译结果以及1990年1∶100万青海省土地利用2种资料中三江源区湿地资源的分布状况,敏感性数值试验采用R1、R2两种湿地覆盖情景,分别代表三江源地区湿地资源较广布和湿地面积锐减后的两种情景,对三江源地区的降水和气温进行了长达15年的积分试验。结果表明,湿地减少对三江源区气温和降水的总体效应是使降水减少、气温升高。区域空间分布的分析表明：年降水量减少幅度较大的区域位于三江源区西部,15年平均减少40～90mm左右;年平均气温升高幅度最大的区域位于三江源区西北部,15年平均升高0.4℃以上。15年积分结果的时间序列分析结果表明：湿地减少后三江源区的增温效应会随着时间进程缓慢扩大,但降水在模拟的后6年不再有明显差异。

英文摘要：

A sensitive numerical experiment was designed for the Regional Climate Model（RegCM3）to model the effects of the wetlands shrinkage on regional climate in the ＂Three-River Headwaters＂ region. According to the wetlands resource distribution in the ＂Three-River Headwaters＂ region interpreted by EOS/MODIS remote sensing data in 2000 and 1∶1000000 land use data in Qinghai Province in 1990,two wetland scenarios （R1 represents large areas of wetlands landcover and R2 represents wetland shrinkage landcover） were input to the Regional Climate Model（RegCM3）to simulate the precipitation and air temperature changes for 15 years in the ＂Three-River Headwaters＂ region. The results showed that the wetland shrinkage makes precipitation decrease and air temperature increase in the ＂Three-River Headwaters＂ region. Analysis of spatial distibution indicated that the annual precipitation decreases by 40-90 mm averaged over 15 years in the southwest of the ＂Three-River Headwaters＂ region,and the annual air temperature increases by 0.4 ℃ averaged over 15 years in the northwest of the ＂Three-River Headwaters＂ region. And analysis of temporal procedure indicated that over 15 years,the increase of annual air temperature in the ＂Three-River Headwaters＂ region caused by the wetland shrinkage aggravates slightly,but the difference of annual precipitation between the two wetland scenairos is not significant in the late six years.