位置:成果数据库 > 期刊 > 期刊详情页
Detecting Changes in Precipitation and Temperature Extremes over China Using a Regional Climate Model with Water Table Dynamics Considered
  • ISSN号:0529-6579
  • 期刊名称:《中山大学学报:自然科学版》
  • 时间:0
  • 分类:P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]
  • 作者机构:[1]The National Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of A tmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China, [2]School of Applied Science, Beijing Information and Science Technology University, Beijing 100192, China
  • 相关基金:supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant Nos. 2010CB428403 and 2009CB421407); the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 91125016); Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. XDA05110102)
中文摘要:

模拟与从 1982 年 9 月 1 日合并水桌子动力学到 2002 年 8 月 28 日检测降水和温度极端的地区性的气候模型 RegCM 被进行。与观察 rlO 相比(有 降水 10 公里 d 1), RegCM3_Hydro (有考虑的水桌子动力学的地区性的气候模型)的天的数字模仿了雨带,在南部的中国和中间和长江的更低的活动范围包括那些,并且提供了数据为对象在西北的中国的 Heihe 河盆那样的半干旱的区域干旱。RegCM3_Hydro 为 Yangtze,黄,和珀尔河盆显示了 r95p (有比每日的数量的第 95 百分位数大的每日的降水的天) 的一个重要增加趋势,与 r95p 观察一致。Haihe 河盆也被选择为一个特定的盒子在基于的阀值(壶) 上用山峰在极端降水上检测地下水的效果有参数的概括 Pareto 分发(GPD ) 由 L 时刻方法估计了。Quantile 阴谋证明几乎,阴谋的点的一些在斜线和与样品适合很好的建模的数据附近被散布。最后,温度极端上的水表格动力学的效果也被评估。在黄河盆和 Songhuajiang 河盆,当水表格动力学从 1983 ~ 2001 被认为,并且清楚地增加温暖的天的数字时,从 RegCM3_Hydro 的温暖的天(TX95n ) 的数字的趋势更仔细匹配观察价值被检测。

英文摘要:

Simulations were conducted with the regional climate model RegCM incorporating water table dynamics from 1 September 1982 to 28 August 2002 to detect precipitation and temperature extremes. Compared with observed r10(number of days with precipitation ≥ 10 mm d^–1), RegCM3_Hydro(the regional climate model with water table dynamics considered) simulated rain belts, including those in southern China and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, and provided data for arid to semi-arid areas such as the Heihe River Basin in northwestern China. RegCM3_Hydro indicated a significant increasing trend of r95p(days with daily precipitation greater than the 95th percentile of daily amounts) for the Yangtze, Yellow, and Pearl River basins, consistent with r95p observations. The Haihe River Basin was also chosen as a specific case to detect the effect of groundwater on extreme precipitation using peaks over threshold(POT)-based generalized Pareto distribution(GPD) with parameters estimated by the L-moment method. Quantile plots showed that all but a few of the plotted points were distributed near diagonal lines and the modeled data fitted well with the samples. Finally, the effects of water table dynamics on temperature extremes were also evaluated. In the Yellow River Basin and Songhuajiang River Basin, the trends of the number of warm days(TX95n) from RegCM3_Hydro matched observed values more closely when water table dynamics were considered, and clearly increasing numbers of warm days from 1983 to 2001 were detected.

同期刊论文项目
同项目期刊论文
期刊信息
  • 《中山大学学报:自然科学版》
  • 北大核心期刊(2011版)
  • 主管单位:国家教育部
  • 主办单位:中山大学
  • 主编:王建华
  • 地址:广州市新港西路135号
  • 邮编:510275
  • 邮箱:xuebaozr@mail.sysn.edu.cn
  • 电话:020-84111990
  • 国际标准刊号:ISSN:0529-6579
  • 国内统一刊号:ISSN:44-1241/N
  • 邮发代号:46-15
  • 获奖情况:
  • 全国优秀高等学校自然科学学报及教育部优秀科技期...,广东省优秀科学技术期刊一等奖,《中文核心期刊要目总览》综合性科技类核心期刊,中国期刊方阵“双效”期刊
  • 国内外数据库收录:
  • 美国化学文摘(网络版),美国数学评论(网络版),英国农业与生物科学研究中心文摘,德国数学文摘,荷兰文摘与引文数据库,美国剑桥科学文摘,英国动物学记录,中国中国科技核心期刊,中国北大核心期刊(2004版),中国北大核心期刊(2008版),中国北大核心期刊(2011版),中国北大核心期刊(2014版),英国英国皇家化学学会文摘,中国北大核心期刊(2000版)
  • 被引量:18509