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中文摘要：
提出了一种基于指数平滑法的GPS卫星钟差预报方法。该方法可采用少量数据建模,且计算过程简单、方便,尤其是在缺少相关历史数据或数据变化趋势不明显、不稳定的情况下,用该方法仍可取得较好的效果。通过与GPS卫星钟差预报中常用的二次多项式模型和灰色预测模型的对比分析,结果表明：指数平滑法适用于GPS卫星钟差的中、短期预报,其预报精度可达ns级;在利用小数据量建模的情况下,其预报效果优于二次多项式模型,与灰色模型的预报效果基本相当;该方法还可用于GPS卫星钟差的长期预报,其预报精度可达μs级,与灰色预测模型的精度相当。
英文摘要：
A new method of GPS satellite clock bias prediction based on exponential smoothing method（ESM）is presented in this paper.This new method can develop the prediction model successfully by using a small amount of data and has the advantages of easier calculation and convenience in operation.And the good results can still be acquired by this new method when the relevant historical data are absent or the changing trend of data is unobvious or unstable.By contrast with the quadratic polynomial model（QPM）and gray system model（GM）which are usually used in GPS satellite clock bias prediction,the calculating and analyzing results indicated that the ESM can be used in the medium-term and short-term prediction of GPS satellite clock bias and the prediction precision can reach up to nanosecond（ns）level.The prediction results of ESM are better than QPM but on the same level with GM when a small amount of data is used to establish the prediction model.And in the mean time,the ESM can also be used in the long-term prediction of GPS satellite clock bias and the prediction precision can reach up to microsecond（μs）level which is on the same level with GM.
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