中文摘要：

青藏高原斜坡受冻融作用影响,不同季节和深度的稳定性是估计流域地质灾害物源量的依据之一。经分析,基于无限斜坡分析方法推导出的不同含水条件下的滑坡安全系数解析表达式适用于特定斜坡。为了得到季节冻土斜坡稳定系数在年内各月份不同深度的变化趋势,首先比较了2个抗剪强度指标对安全系数的影响程度;其次对实验数据进行回归分析,得到抗剪强度随温度和含水率的变化趋势函数;通过对气象数据的回归分析,得到地温随月份和深度的变化趋势函数;深度1 m内的含水率,受外界环境因素影响大,随月份和深度变化趋势需经观测获得,再经回归分析得到含水率随月份与深度的变化趋势函数。经参数变化趋势分析,得到斜坡稳定系数时空变化趋势函数。

英文摘要：

In the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, the stability of slopes affected by freeze-thaw in different seasons and at different depths, is one of the evidence to estimate the sources amount of watershed geological disasters. The analysis shows that the analytical expression of the safety factor of landslide with different water content conditions is derived by applying the infinite slope analysis method and is appropriate for a particular slope. To obtain the trends of the stability factor of the seasonal frozen soil slope in each month at different depths during a year, two shear strength indexes are compared for the impact on safety factor. The trend functions of shear strength with temperature and moisture content are obtained by the regression analysis of the experimental data. Through the regression analysis of the meteorological data, the trend function of ground temperature with month and depth is obtained. Due to the large influence of the external environmental factors, the trends of the water content at depth of 1 m with the month and depth depends on the observations. The functions are obtained by the regression analysis. After a parameter trend analysis, the spatiotemporal trend function of the slope stability factor is obtained.