近年来,“中等收入陷阱”成为学术界研究的热点。本文从中等收入陷阱的概念,为什么落入中等收入陷阱、如何跨越中等收入陷阱三个方面对现有文献进行了梳理,发现现有研究在中等收入陷阱的概念上不存在较大的争议,只是根据这些概念,我们难以判断一个经济体是否落人(或曾经落入)了中等收入陷阱。拉美国家落人中等收入陷阱的主要原因在于巨大的收入差距、外需萎缩与内需不足、进口替代工业化战略三个方面。而中国可能因为收入差距过大、人口红利消失、资源和环境约束、国际捧杀与遏制四个方面的原因落人中等收入陷阱。因此,调整收入分配格局、缩小国民收入差距;推动产业结构升级、实现增长方式转型;实施出口导向战略、提升国际竞争能力是跨越中等收入陷阱的主要措施。最后,本文从理论上和实证上探讨了中等收入陷阱未来的研究方向。
In recent years, the research of the middle income trap has become very popular. This paper sorts out the existing literatures from the concept of middle--income trap, why fall into middle--income trap and how to escape middle--income trap? We find there is not a great controversy among existing re- searches on the concept of middle--income trap. but according to these concepts, it is difficult to judge whether an economy is falling (or ever fall into) the middle--income trap. The reasons of Latin American countries falling into the middle--income trap are the huge income gap, shrinking external demand and in- sufficient domestic demand, the strategy of import substitution industrialization. China may fall into the middle--income trap because of the big gap of income, the disappeared of demographic dividend, the con- straints of resources and environmental, the international flattery and containment. Therefore, adjusting the pattern of income distribution to narrow the gap of income, promoting the upgrading of industrial to a- chieve the transformation of economic growth mode, implementing the strategy of export--oriented to en- hance international competitiveness are the main measures to cross the middle--income trap. Finally, this paper explores the future research directions of the middle--income trap on theoretical and empirical.