中文摘要：

基于变权理论的煤层底板突水脆弱性评价模型可以解决传统常权脆弱性评价模型中存在的固定权重不能反映突水主控因素指标值内部差异性对评价结果造成的影响。但是利用变权模型对煤层底板突水评价中变权区间阈值及调权参数的确定目前尚没有统一的分析确定方法,变权区间和调权参数决定了变权模型对研究区主控因素的哪些指标值采取何种幅度的权重调整。针对这两个亟待解决的问题,根据煤层底板突水各主控因素指标值在空间分布上存在差异,但也具有一定的相似性的特征,利用聚类分析方法对各主控因素变权区间阈值进行了确定,同时也对变权评价模型中的调权参数确定探索性提出一种能够满足决策者决策偏好的可行性方法。在此基础上以山东省兴隆庄矿为例进行求解说明和效果验证。

英文摘要：

The vulnerability assessment model of water-inrush from coal floor based on the variable weight theory can solve the problem that the constant weight can＇t reflect the effect on the evaluation result caused by the inner difference of water inrush control factor index value. But there is no uniform analysis and determination method of interval threshold and adjusted weight parameters in the variable weight assessment model of water-inrush from coal floor,that determines which weights of water inrush controlling factors will be adjusted and their amplitude of adjustment. According to the spatial distribution differences as well as some similar features of each controlling factors index value in water-inrush from coal floor,this paper uses the cluster analysis method to determine the interval threshold of each variable weight controlling factor. At the same time,it also tries to propose a feasible method that can satisfy decisionmaker＇s preference to determine the adjusted weight parameters in the variable weight evaluation model. On the basis of the above work,taking Xinglongzhuang Coal Mine in Shandong province as an example,the solution is illustratedand the result is verified.