文章对当前中国碳排放量影响因素测算中的研究方法加以梳理,并将这些方法分为单一类型研究方法和组合研究方法两大类。分析了情景分析法、指数分解分析法和传统计量法三种单一类型研究方法和情景分析下的投入产出、CGE、系统动力学三种组合研究方法的特点、优势和缺陷,得出单一类型研究方法容易忽略重要的影响因子,组合研究方法的理论模型更具合理性,但参数的设定与实证过程存在难度。
This article analyzes the research methods of current Chinese carbon emissions calculating, and assorts them into two categories which are the single type and the combination type. The paper analyzes the characteristics, advantages and limitations of scenario analysis method, index decomposition analysis method and traditional econometric method of the single type. Then, it analyzes the same elements of input-output, CGE, system dynamics of the combination type. The result shows that the single type methods usually ignore the important influencing factors and the theoretical models of combination type are more reasonable, but their parameter settings and empirical process are difficult.