中文摘要：

为有效分析管道爆管可能性的大小,并为制定管网更新决策提供依据,以北方某港口城市供水管网实际爆管数据为基础,采用生存分析的方法建立了爆管危险率模型,提出了管道个体的概念,详细分析了选取模型变量的方法,并采用贝叶斯定理将变量分级.结果显示该模型具有较好的拟合效果和预测精度,能够有效地筛选出爆管危险率较大的管道.

英文摘要：

In order to effectively analyze the probability of pipe failure and offer support for decision making in rehabilitation of water distribution system,a breakage hazard rate model was established using survival analysis,on basis of the actual data of pipe failure in the water distribution system in a port city of north China.The concept of individual pipe was introduced,selection method for variables of the model was analyzed in detail,and the variables were classified with Bayesian theorem.Results show that the proposed model has satisfactory fitting performance and prediction accuracy and is able to find the pipes with higher breakage hazard rate.