中文摘要：

运用重心迁移模型、标准差椭圆及多元Logistic回归分析,探讨了两汉794座侯国的时空演变特征,揭示了各历史时期侯国分布格局演变和社会经济、地理环境等要素的关系。结果表明：1各历史时期中侯国数量及其占总量比重、频率基本呈现＂高—低—高—低＂波浪形起伏的变化趋势。2各历史时期侯国分布格局均呈现高度集聚状态,分布重心走向经历了由西→东、由东→西的反转,在距离与移动速率上呈现东汉〉西汉的规律;西汉标准差椭圆X轴、Y轴、面积呈不断减小趋势,东汉标准差椭圆X轴、Y轴、面积呈不断增大趋势。3微观地理选择上影响侯国设置最主要的因素是区位因子,说明两汉侯国设置时更多考虑分布于距离道路、都城、区域中心城市较近的区域,表现出明显的＂社会经济指向性＂。此外,地形因子与区位因子在方向性上的转变表明各因子对侯国设置的影响并非一成不变,而是伴随社会发展状况及政治体制动态变化,其与政治因素的关联度仍是主导性的。

英文摘要：

This paper presents an analysis of the spatio-temporal distribution of 794 marquisates in the Han Dynasty based on gravity transform model, standard deviational ellipse and multiple logistic regression. It further reveals the relationships between the spatial pattern of the marquisates and socio-economic and geographical factors in each historical period. Some conclusions can be drawn as follows：（1） The numbers, proportions and frequency of marquisates substantially showed a ＂high-low-high-low＂ trend in the research period.（2）The distribution pattern of marquisates in different historical eras presented a highly concentrated state and it experienced a reversal from the west to the east and then from the east to the west. The analyses of the standard deviational ellipses suggested a fact that the Eastern Han Dynasty overtook the Western Han Dynasty in distance and movement rate; The X axis, Y axis and its area on standard deviational ellipse of the Western Han Dynasty continued to decline. However, the X axis, Y axis and its area on standard deviational ellipse of the Eastern Han Dynasty gradually increased.（3） The analysis of multiple logistic regression demonstrates that the most important factor that had effect on how marquisates reacted was their location.Therefore, they were more likely to be located in areas near roads, capitals and regional central cities. The analysis also presents a picture of obvious ＂social economy directivity＂. In addition,directional change in terrain factor and location factor reveals that the effects of all factors on the marquisates settling were changeable and transformed with the social development and political system. However, its correlation with political factors was still dominant.