中文摘要：

在分析中国粮食作物化肥施用特征的基础上,运用分位数回归模型探究了1994年以来化肥施用强度对早籼稻、中籼稻、晚籼稻、粳稻、小麦、玉米6种粮食单产水平的影响。研究表明：1）中国粮食作物的化肥施用强度增长具有明显的阶段性特征;6种粮食作物的化肥施用强度持续增加,且均超出国际安全施用标准;小麦与玉米的化肥施用强度显著高于水稻;部分品种的化肥施用强度已出现优势产区和非优势产区、东中西部的区域差异。2）粮食作物的化肥施用强度与其单产水平具有显著的关联效应。3）晚籼稻、粳稻和玉米的化肥施用强度对其单产仍存在正向作用,但已呈现边际效用递减特征;小麦、早籼稻和中籼稻的这种影响不再显著,已有过度施用特征。今后在坚持化肥施用零增长前提下,注重科学施用化肥、有效提高化肥利用率,在保障粮食安全与促进农业可持续发展之间达成平衡,是坚持中国特色农业现代化道路的必然要求。

英文摘要：

Based on provincial panel data,and applying the quantile regression model,this paper analyzed the effects of fertilizer application on grain yield in China.Varieties studied in this research include early indica-rice,middle indicarice,late indica-rice,japonica-rice,wheat and corn.Results show that China＇s agricultural fertilizer application has been growing continuously and has exceeded the international safety standard.The intensities of fertilizer on wheat and corn were higher than that of rice.There exists intensity difference between advantage producing areas and disadvantage producing areas and it also exists between eastern China and western China.Descriptive statistical analysis indicates that the strength of fertilizer and grain yield have the same trend.Chemical fertilizers still have positive effects on grain yields while showing significant declining marginal return.In the future,the Government should encourage zero growth of fertilizer application,pay more attention to improve fertilizer efficacy,and keep the balance between grain security and sustainable agricultural development.