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Methodology for estimating probability of dynamical system’s failure for concrete gravity dam

ISSN号：1001-3695
期刊名称：《计算机应用研究》
时间：0
分类：TV642.3[水利工程—水利水电工程] O175.1[理学—数学;理学—基础数学]
作者机构：[1]State Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Simulation and Safety (Tianjin University), Tianjin 300072, China
相关基金：Projects（51021004,51379141）supported by the Foundation for Innovative Research Groups of the National Natural Science Foundation of China

关键词：混凝土重力坝, 动力系统, 失效概率, 结构可靠度理论, 故障模式, 可靠性分析, 估算, 渐进破坏过程, concrete gravity dam, dynamical system, failure mode identification, calculation of system failure probability, stochastic model

中文摘要：

Methodology for the reliability analysis of hydraulic gravity dam is the key technology in current hydropower construction.Reliability analysis for the dynamical dam safety should be divided into two phases:failure mode identification and the calculation of the failure probability.Both of them are studied based on the mathematical statistics and structure reliability theory considering two kinds of uncertainty characters(earthquake variability and material randomness).Firstly,failure mode identification method is established based on the dynamical limit state system and verified through example of Koyna Dam so that the statistical law of progressive failure process in dam body are revealed; Secondly,for the calculation of the failure probability,mathematical model and formula are established according to the characteristics of gravity dam,which include three levels,that is element failure,path failure and system failure.A case study is presented to show the practical application of theoretical method and results of these methods.

英文摘要：

Methodology for the reliability analysis of hydraulic gravity dam is the key technology in current hydropower construction.Reliability analysis for the dynamical dam safety should be divided into two phases：failure mode identification and the calculation of the failure probability.Both of them are studied based on the mathematical statistics and structure reliability theory considering two kinds of uncertainty characters（earthquake variability and material randomness）.Firstly,failure mode identification method is established based on the dynamical limit state system and verified through example of Koyna Dam so that the statistical law of progressive failure process in dam body are revealed; Secondly,for the calculation of the failure probability,mathematical model and formula are established according to the characteristics of gravity dam,which include three levels,that is element failure,path failure and system failure.A case study is presented to show the practical application of theoretical method and results of these methods.

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