中文摘要：

生态足迹法通过将区域的资源和能源消费转化为提供这种物质流所必须的各种生物生产土地的面积,并同区域能提供的生态生产型土地面积（生态承载力）进行比较,能定量判断一个区域的发展是否处于生态承载能力的范围内。本文运用生态足迹法和ARIMA模型,以2013年以及1994-2013年西安生物资源账户和碳足迹账户的消费数据,进行静态生态承载力与动态生态承载力分析并预测未来5年生态安全情况。结果表明：2013年西安市生态足迹大于生态容量,同时1994-2013年西安市均表现出生态足迹超出生态承载力8倍左右,出现严重的生态赤字。西安市的生产、生活强度超过了生态系统的承载能力,西安市生态系统处于人类的过度开发利用之下。ARIMA模型预测表明未来5年生态足迹虽有逐年减小的趋势,但和生态承载力差距较大。通过分析西安市人类活动对自然生态系统的压力和影响程度,可为城市生态研究、生态建设和可持续发展提供新的思路和方向。通过研究提出加强城市生态建设,优化城市管理模式,优化产业结构是维持西安可持续发展和生态安全的有效途径。

英文摘要：

Ecological footprint method by converting the regional resources and energy consumption to the area of various kinds of land of the production providing this kind of material flow , and compare with the same land area that can provide the ecological productive （ecological carrying capacity）,it can quantitatively determine whether the development of a region in the scope of the ecological carrying capacity. In this paper, using the method of ecological footprint and ARIMA model to calculate account of biological and energy resources of ecological footprint of Xi＇an from 1994 to 2013,and research on dynamic change,predict ecological footprint and ecological capacity in Xi＇an city.The results showed that ecological footprint is greater than the ecological capacity in Xi＇an in 2013.ecological footprint is eight times of ecological carrying capacity from 1994 to 2013 in Xi ＇an, and sustained severe ecological deficit. The intensity of production and life is more than the carrying capacity of the ecosystem, it＇s under the excessive exploitation and utilization of the human.ARIMA model prediction shows that the ecological footprint has a tendency in the next five years, but the gap between ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity is very large. Through the analysis of influence degree of pressure of human activities on the natural ecological system.it can provide new train of thought and direction for urban ecological research, ecological construction and sustainable development . With strengthening the construction of urban ecological , optimizing the urban management mode and the industrial structure,it is an effective way to sustainable development and ecological security in Xi＇an.