中文摘要：

针对风力发电机组出力的随机性，利用鲁棒优化理论，采用盒式不确定集合表示风速的不确定性，将风速作为随机变量，建立了在一定安全约束条件下的风电场最大装机容量的优化模型。为了便于求解，运用优化对偶理论简化模型，将约束条件中的不确定量转化为确定量形式，模型转化为线性规划模型。IEEE30节点系统计算和分析表明，不同的并网节点、风速波动范围、风机参数等因素对风电场最大装机容量有明显的影响，盒式集合鲁棒优化的风电场最大装机容量的模型和方法可行、有效、快捷。

英文摘要：

In allusion to the randomness of wind power generator sets, by use of robust optimization theory the uncertainty of wind speed is expressed by cassette uncertain sets, and taking wind speed as random variable, an optimization model for maximum installed capacity of wind farm under a certain security constraints is built. To solve the proposed model conveniently, the proposed model is simplified by Optimized duality theory and the uncertain quantities in the constraints are turned into the form of certain quantities as well as the proposed model into linear programming model. Analysis on calculation results of IEEE 30-bus system shows that the position of grid-connected node, fluctuation region of wind speed and parameters of wind turbine greatly influence on maximum installed capacity of wind farm, and the proposed robust optimization based model and method to determine maximum installed capacity of wind farm is feasible, effective and efficient.