中文摘要：

气候变化是目前国内外公认的最主要全球性环境问题之一,未来的气候变化将进一步加剧我国水资源的供需矛盾,影响着水资源承载力的变化。在总结水资源承载力研究成果的基础上,论文阐述了水资源动态承载力的概念与内涵,提出了气候变化下水资源动态承载力计算的理论框架及基于预测-模拟-优化的控制目标反推模型计算方法（即PSO-COIM方法）,并以我国最大内陆河塔里木河流域为典型实例,通过构建径流与气温、降水等气象因子的ARIMAX动态回归预测模型,分析计算RCP8.5、RCP4.5和RCP2.6三种气候情景下塔里木河流域未来不同水平年水资源动态承载力。计算结果能清晰反映出不同气候情景下水资源的承载规模,并可以判断出未来经济社会发展预测情形下的水资源承载程度,为支撑流域可持续发展提供依据。

英文摘要：

Currently, climate change is regarded as one of the most important global environmental prob- lems at home and abroad. Future climate change may further exacerbate the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources in China, and affect water resources carrying capacity. This paper, based on the summary of the water resources carrying capacity researches, systematically expounds the concept and connotation of water resources dynamic carrying capacity, and puts forward its calculation theoretical frames and the Prediction-Simulation-Optimization-Based Control Object Inversion method （namely PSO-CO- IM Model）. By constructing the ARIMAX dynamic regression forecasting model of the meteorological factors such as temperature, precipitation and runoff, the paper, taking Tarim River Basin, which is the largest continental river in China, as a typical example, analyses and calculates its water resources dynamic carry- ing capacity in future different level years under the three kinds of climate situation： RCPS.5, RCP4.5 and RCP2.6. The results of the calculation can clearly reflect the carrying scale of water resources under different climate situations, also determine its carrying levels in the future predicted economic and social development situation, as well as provide the basis for the sustainable development of Tarim River Basin.