中文摘要：

基于海洋经济系统稳定性的内涵，从抵抗力和恢复力两个层面构建评价指标体系，采用综合评估模型测算了中国沿海11个省市区（不包括港澳台）的海洋经济系统稳定性指数，结果表明：①中国海洋经济系统稳定性指数200l-2013年间变化幅度较小，2003年和2009年前后出现明显波动；②中国海洋经济系统稳定性的地区差异明显，广东、山东海洋经济系统属于高度稳定，上海、浙江海洋经济系统属于较高稳定，天津、福建、江苏海洋经济系统属于中度稳定，辽宁、河北海洋经济系统属于较低稳定，海南、广西海洋经济系统属于低度稳定；③中国海洋经济系统稳定性与海洋经济发展水平呈密切的正相关关系；④引入障碍度诊断模型对中国海洋经济系统稳定性的障碍因子进行定量分析，并以各地区海洋经济系统稳定性主要障碍因子为依据，针对性地提出中国海洋经济发展方向。

英文摘要：

A complicated international environment, arduous domestic reform, development tasks and pressure to stabilize growth during the 13^th Five Year Plan, China＇ s marine economy needs to resist disturbances and maintain stability and development. Based on marine system economic stability, an evaluation index system was established at two levels： immunity and resilience. The stability index of the marine economic system in 11 provinces along the east coast （excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan） calculated by means of comprehensive evaluation modeling. We found that the stability index of China＇ s marine economic system between 2011 and 2013 changed slightly, while variation around 2003 and 2009 was obvious. Local differences in China＇ s marine economic systematic stability is significant. Systematic stability in Guangdong and Shandong is stable while those in Hainan and Guangxi are the least stable. The system in Shanghai and Zhejiang has higher stability; that in Liaoning and Hebei shows lower stability. Systematic stability in Tianjin, Fujian and Jiangsu is moderate. There is a close positive correlation between the stability of China＇ s marine economic system and marine developing levels. An obstacle degree model was introduced to analyze obstruction factors affecting the stability of China＇ s marine economic system quantitatively. Pertinent directions for marine economic development are discussed.