中文摘要：

根据潮河流域戴营水文站1956-2000年历年逐月气温、降水和径流量资料，统计分析了近45年流域气候变化的基本特点，并以径流量作为自回归因子，降水和气温作为多元回归因子，建立了径流量预测的混合回归模型，分析了径流量对气候变化响应的敏感性。

英文摘要：

Based on monthly temperature and precipitation data from 1956 to 2000 of the Daiying Hydrological Station in Chaohe River Basin, the characteristics of climatic change in the past 45 years are analyzed. And then mix regression model is established for annual runoff forecasting, in which year flow is auto-regression factor, precipitation and air temperature is regression factor. The impact of temperature and precipitation changes on annual runoff process is analyzed.