中文摘要：

采用2004年9月～2012年2月猪肉价格、育肥猪配合饲料价格、居民消费价格指数与仔猪价格的月度数据,借助Johansen协整检验,运用VEC模型分析了育肥猪配合饲料价格、居民消费价格指数与仔猪价格的变化对猪肉价格波动的短期及长期影响。研究表明：短期来看,前一期仔猪价格、育肥猪配合饲料价格以及CPI都对当期的猪肉价格产生正效应,其中前一期CPI对当期猪肉价格正效应最大。长期来看,CPI对猪肉价格的影响减弱,而育肥猪配合饲料价格对猪肉价格影响增强,仔猪价格对猪肉价格却产生了负效应。在此基础上,提出了稳定猪肉价格的政策建议。

英文摘要：

By using monthly data of pork price,fed hog mixture feedstuffs price,CPI and the piglet price from July 2004 to December 2011 in china,and employing Johansen cointegration test and the VEC model（Vector Error Correction model）,the paper analyzes the long and short term impacts of the changes of fed hog mixture feedstuffs price,CPI and the piglet price on pork price fluctuations.And finds that the pork price,the fed hog mixture feedstuffs price,CPI and the piglet price of the preceding term have a positive effect on current pork price with CPI having the most significant positive effect.In the long run the impacts of CPI gets weaker,whereas the fed hog mixture feedstuffs price＇s impacts become increasingly strong,and the piglet price has negative effect in the long term.Policy recommendations of stabilizing pork price are proposed.