中文摘要：

为研究金川二矿区采场整体围岩的稳定性，采用数值模拟方法研究影响采场整体围岩的稳定性的13个因素之间的关系。采取最小二乘法对试验结果进行多元线性回归，获得4个评价指标函数。利用可靠度理论进行采场稳定性可靠度分析和失稳风险预测，获得采场围岩的能量释放率（ERR）、地表沉降率（SDR）、采场围岩和充填体收敛率（DCR）和平均屈服率（AFR）4个评价指标，对应的失稳风险分别为7．5％，0．78％，3．02％和0．32％。采用4个评价指标的串联模式系统综合分析采场围岩整体稳定性，计算出采场整体失稳风险概率为11．28％，表明采场整体存在失稳风险，需要进一步监测岩体移动。

英文摘要：

In order to study the stope overall stability of Jinchuan No. 2 mine area, the relationship among the 13 factors influencing the overall stope surrounding rock stability was studied using numerical simulation. The evaluation functions of the 4 indexes were obtained. Reliability theory used to analyze reli- ability of the stope stability and predict the risk of losing stability. The results show that the energy releasing rate （ ERR）, the surface displacement rate （ SDR）, the displacement convergence rate （ DCR）, and the averaging failure rate （AFR） of stope surrounding rock correspond to the probability of risk of losing stability 7.5%, 0. 78%, 3.02% and 0. 32% respectively, that the probability of overall risk of losing stability of large area continuous mining stope is 11.28%, and that the stope faces an overall risk of losing stability, the displacement of rock mass should be further monitored.