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中文摘要：
由于受气候变化和频繁人类活动的影响,用于水资源评价计算的年径流序列失去了一致性。本文针对非一致性年径流序列,提出基于希尔伯特-黄变换的水资源评价方法,可以推求过去、现状和未来各个时期变化环境下的地表水资源量。该方法假设非一致性年径流序列由相对一致的随机性成分和非一致的确定性成分两部分组成,采用希尔伯特-黄变换的EMD分解方法提取趋势成分,并对确定性趋势成分进行拟合计算;根据时间序列分析的分解与合成理论,对年径流序列的随机性成分进行提取,采用有约束加权适线法对其进行频率计算;将确定性的预测值和随机性的设计值进行合成,以得到过去、现状和未来不同时期年径流合成序列的频率分布。对海河区的永定河册田水库以上三级区进行了实例验证,结果表明该区年径流量序列趋势变异显著;多年平均地表水资源量在过去（1956年以前）、现状（2000年）和未来（2015年）三个时期的评价结果分别为：44.12mm、26.88mm、26.79mm,未来和现状与过去相比分别减小约39.08%和39.28%,这种情形对该区域水资源的开发利用极为不利。
英文摘要：
Owing to the effects of changing climate and frequent human activities, the annual runoff series used for water resource assessment have lost their consistency. To consider this inconsistency, this paper proposes an assessment method of water resources using the Hilbert-Huang transformation for calculation of surface water resources under changing environments in the past, present and future, based on an assumption that inconsistent annual runoff series can be decomposed into a relatively consistent random component and an inconsistent deterministic component. In this method, first the tendency component of an annual runoff series is identified and tested with a correlation coefficient testing method, and the deterministic trend component is fitted. Second, the random component of this series is extracted by the theory of decomposition and composition of time series, and its frequency is calculated using a constrained and weighted fitting method. Last, the deterministic forecasting value and stochastic design value are synthesized so that the past, present and future frequency distributions of the series are obtained. Assessment was calculated in a case study of the third regionalization, located upstream of the Cetian reservoir on the Yongding River in the first regionalization of the Hai River. The results show that this region was featured with a significant alteration in its annual runoffseries, and that its long-term average surface water resources in the past （before 1956）, present （2000） and future （2010） were 44. 12mm, 26. 88mm and 26.79ram, respectively. Relative to the past, the resources decrease by 39.08% and 39.28% in the future and present respectively. This is a situation unfavorable to the development and utilization of water resources in the region.
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