中国各区域的能源消耗强度及其变化趋势存在很大差异。本文建立了区域能源消耗强度的面板数据模型.研究不同区域各种经济因素与能源消耗强度之间的协整关系,并基于误差修正模型考察短期动态调整效应。得出结论:就能源消耗强度的长期趋势和短期波动而言,产业结构及能源消费结构对高能耗区域的影响很大,高能耗区域通过结构调整有更大的节能空间。尽管中能耗区域有较高的长期价格弹性,但能源价格的短期波动对各区域都不显著。企业科技开发投入对各区域仅有长期影响,对高能耗区域的影响更大。低能耗区域的能源消耗强度对各种经济因素的短期波动能迅速做出反应,而高能耗区域虽然对各种因素的短期变化调整缓慢,但表现出更大的长期节能潜力。
Energy consumption intensity and trends differ greatly in different regions in China. Based on panel data models of regional energy consumption intensity we set up, the paper analyzes the cointegration relationship between economic factors and energy consumption intensity in different regions. Based on error correction models, the paper discusses the short-term dynamic adjustment effect of economic factors on energy consumption intensity. The paper comes to the conclusions that: for the long-term trend and short-term fluctuation of energy consumption intensity, the impact of industrial structure and energy consumption mix on high energyconsuming region is the strongest, thus structure adjustment will be more effective to energy-saving in this region. The long-term elasticity of energy price is high in mid energy-consuming region, while short-term fluctuation of energy price is insignificant to all regions. Input of enterprise technology development has only long-term impact on all regions, and its impact on high energy-consuming region is the strongest. Energy consumption intensity of low energy-consuming region reacts more sensitively to short-term fluctuations of economic factors, and we find though high energy-consuming region has a slowly adjustment to these short-term fluctuations, this region has greater long-term energy-saving potential.