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一类驼峰调车事故的贝叶斯网络模型研究
  • ISSN号：1672-7029
  • 期刊名称：《铁道科学与工程学报》
  • 时间：0
  • 分类：X951[环境科学与工程—安全科学]
  • 作者机构：[1]兰州交通大学交通运输学院,甘肃兰州730070
  • 相关基金：基金项目：国家自然科学基金资助项目（61064012;61164003）
作者： 张春民[1], 李引珍[1], 何瑞春[1]
关键词： 跟钩撞车, 侧面冲突, 事故树, 贝叶斯网络, rear- end collision, side collision, fault tree, Bayesian network
中文摘要：

驼峰跟钩撞车及侧面冲突调车事故会给驼峰调车作业带来较大安全隐患，影响驼峰解体作业的效率和能力。从技术条件角度考虑，对线路、车辆以及调车设备3个方面因素进行分析。鉴于驼峰系统是复杂的大系统，具有不确定性的特点，考虑贝叶斯网络能较好解决不确定性问题，建立跟钩撞车及侧面冲突调车事故的贝叶斯网络模型。利用Matlab中的BN推理工具软件包BNT计算顶上事件的发生概率以及基本事件的后验概率。结果表明：影响此类调车事故的主要因素为线路和车辆两方面。

英文摘要：

The rear- end and side collision accident on hump would bring great hidden danger, which affects the efficiency and breaking- up capacity. Three main factors, i. e. , track, rolling stock and speed control equipments were analyzed from technical condition point of view. In view of the complexity and uncertainty of hump system and the characteristics of Bayesian network which is good at solving uncertainty problem, a Bayesian network model of the rear - end and side collision accident was established. The BNT of Matlab was used to calculate the top event＇ s probability and basic events＇ posterior probability. The results show that the main factors affecting the type shunting accident are track and rolling stock.

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期刊信息
  • 《铁道科学与工程学报》
  • 北大核心期刊（2011版）
  • 主管单位:
  • 主办单位:中南大学　中国铁道学会
  • 主编：余志武
  • 地址：长沙市韶山南路22号
  • 邮编：410075
  • 邮箱：JRSE@mail.csu.edu.cn
  • 电话：0731-82655133
  • 国际标准刊号：ISSN：1672-7029
  • 国内统一刊号：ISSN：43-1423/U
  • 邮发代号:42-59
  • 获奖情况:
  • 国内外数据库收录:
  • 美国化学文摘（网络版）,中国中国科技核心期刊,中国北大核心期刊（2011版）,中国北大核心期刊（2014版）
  • 被引量:5570