中文摘要：

检验和揭示境内人民币即期汇率与境外NDF间的互动关系，可为各类市场主体提供有益的市场信息和参考。本文针对2006年10月出台的对境内机构和个人参与境外人民币NDF交易的限制性政策，实证研究了该政策实施后人民币即期汇率与NDF的相互影响。格兰杰因果性检验表明：即期汇率引导12个月期限的NDF；12个月期限的NDF不引导即期汇率。境内现汇市场显现出本土信息优势。在一定程度上说明人民币汇改和限制性措施的成效性，但限制性政策却可能并非长远之计。

英文摘要：

Useful information can be found in identifying interactions between RMB＇SPOT and NDF （Non-Deliverable Forward） exchange rate markets. The monetary authority of China imposed the restriction on domestic corporations and individuals to operate NDF on OCT 2006, so using the Grange causality test, this paper finds that there exist significant asymmetric return spillover effects from the SPOT to the 12 month NDF markets, and the SPOT market has a local information advantage on NDF markets. The restriction policy helps to improve the stability of the SPOT market, but it may not be a good choice in the long future.