中文摘要：

选取三个台风个例（2004年“桑达”、2005年“彩蝶”、2009年“彩云”），分别以多个相邻时次作为初始时刻进行一系列的数值模拟，结果表明热带气旋（Tc）与上游槽相互作用的关键区域的预报误差与TC转向后的路径预报误差表现出显著的相关性。以2010年“马勒卡”台风为个例的敏感性试验证实了中纬度下游环流的发展及TC转向之后的移动路径对TC的强度和TC相对于上游槽的位置很敏感，这个结果给出了TC路径对TC．槽相互作用的敏感性的一个例子或一种方式。若TC增强或更接近上游槽，TC与上游槽的相互作用增强，TC向中纬度输出低PV空气的能力增强，由此导致下游区域的Pv梯度增大，同时TC对中纬度梯度的扰动也会加强，因而会引起中纬度下游环流发展增强，且偏经向，TC在转向之后的路径偏北偏西；反之则下游环流偏纬向，路径偏南偏东。

英文摘要：

Three typhoon cases are selected to conduct a series of simulations that are initialized from sequential analyses. The results showed that the forecast error for a crucial area where a tropical cyclone （TC） interacted with an upstream trough is highly correlated to the track forecast error made after the TC recurvature. Furthermore, sensitivity experiments confirmed that the developments of the midlatitude downstream circulations and then the TC track after its recurvature are highly sensitive to the TC intensity and its location relative to the upstream trough, which illustrates one of the ways in which the TC track is sensitive to the TC-trough interaction. If the TC interacts with the upstream trough more strongly （e.g., the TC being intensified or closer to the upstream trough）, the downstream circulation will be more meridional, and thus the TC track will be more northerly and westerly; otherwise, the downstream circulation will be more zonal and the TC track will be more southerly and easterly.