中文摘要：

目前洪水遭遇研究仅限于简单的实测资料统计分析,尚缺系统有效的理论方法。基于多维Copula函数分别建立金沙江屏山站、岷江高场站、嘉陵江北碚站以及长江宜昌站的洪水发生时间和量级的联合分布。以此方法估计干支流洪水发生时间和量级的遭遇可能性及条件概率,并与实测资料的统计结果进行比较。结果表明,模型计算结果与实测相吻合,说明该方法不仅具有理论基础、而且结果合理可信,为洪水遭遇分析计算提供了一条新的途径。

英文摘要：

Flood coincidence probability analysis among different regions is quite important for flood design and control.The current flood coincidence probability analysis is based on the simple statistical analysis of observed data without theoretic methods.In this study,the daily flow data of four hydrological stations in the upstream Yangtze River and its tributaries,including the Pingshan at the Jinsha River,Gaochang at the Min River,Beibei at the Jialing River and Yichang at the Yangtze River,are selected for case study.Multidimensional copula functions are introduced and used to construct the joint distributions of flood occurrence dates and magnitudes.Flood coincidence and conditional probabilities among the upstream Yangtze River and its tributaries thus are estimated.The calculated flood encounter values are compared to the empirical ones estimated by the observed data.The results show that the proposed method is rational and provides a new approach for flood encounter analysis.