中文摘要：

[目的]分析农牧交错区水资源承载力的动态变化规律,为同类地区的可持续发展提供有益的理论参考。[方法]以内蒙古自治区通辽市科尔沁区作为农牧交错区典型案例地,运用系统动力学方法,建立科尔沁区有限水资源支撑下的＂社会—经济—生态＂协同发展的仿真模型,并根据农牧交错地区以及科尔沁区社会经济发展的特点,提出区域＂社会—经济—生态＂协同发展的自然增长模式、第一产业现代化模式、第二产业主导模式、第三产业引领模式、循环经济发展模式这5种理论模式。[结果]在系统动力学仿真的基础上,运用遗传投影寻踪法对仿真结果进行优选,认为循环经济发展模式是水资源承载力最优的发展模式。[结论]（1）合理调配农、牧比例关系是节约农牧交错地区有限水资源的关键举措;（2）农牧交错地区致力发展传统产业或将陷入水资源匮乏的窘境;（3）发展循环经济是提高农牧交错地区水资源承载力的有效途径;（4）全面开展农牧交错区的水资源承载力研究是增强区域可持续发展能力的保障。

英文摘要：

[Objective]The dynamic changes of water resource carrying capacity in agro-pastoral ecotone is analyzed,which will provide a theoretical reference for the sustainable development of the similar areas.[Methods]The study selects the Horqin District,Tongliao City in Inner Mongolia as a case study area,which is characterized with typical characteristics of agro-pastoral ecotone.Through the method of system dynamics simulation,we established the system dynamic model for the coordinated development of＂societyeconomy-ecology＂based on the limited water resources in Horqin District.Meanwhile,according to the char-acteristics of agro-pastoral ecotone and social economic development in Horqin District,five theoretical models of regional ＂society-economy-ecology＂coordinated development were put forward,including natural growth model,primary industry-modernization model,secondary industry-dominated model,tertiary industry-led model and recycling economic development model.[Results]On the basis of system dynamic simulation,we used genetic projection pursuit method to optimize the simulation results,and found that the recycling economic development model was the model with optimal water resources carrying capacity.[Conclusion]（1）The proper arrangement of agricultural and pastoral proportion is a key to saving limited water resources in agro-pastoral ecotone;（2）The development of traditional industries in agro-pastoral ecotone would cause water resources scarcity;（3）Recycling economy is an effective way to improve the carrying capacity of water resources in agro-pastoral ecotone;（4）The increasing investiment on researches on the carrying capacity of water resources in agro-pastoral ecotone will help to provide the support for regional sustainable development.