中南半岛与中国西南接壤,是连接"一带一路"的重要枢纽,也是中国西南通往印度洋的重要通道,具有十分重要的战略地位。文章分析了1995―2013年中国与中南半岛国家的贸易格局,并计算了双方近十年来贸易相互依赖度(HM指数),结果表明:中国与中南半岛国家的贸易格局不均衡,中南半岛国家贸易对中国市场依赖程度明显高于中国对其依赖程度。"一带一路"的实施,中国与中南半岛国家贸易关系将面临一系列新的挑战:贸易格局不均衡将引发国内经济运行风险、国际贸易摩擦、国家猜疑、贸易空间平衡等问题;HM指数的个体差异将导致各国与中国经贸合作立场与态度的差异;海陆贸易大通道国外段畅通问题,以及域外大国与中国争夺市场的问题等。积极推行"亲诚惠容"周边外交战略,科学合理地调整贸易结构,大力推动贸易便利化建设,优化西南边境地区经济布局是应对中国与中南半岛国家贸易关系新挑战的有效策略。
The Indo-China Peninsula, bordering Southwest China, is an important hub of "One Belt and One Road" and also an important channel to the Indian Ocean. Therefore, it is in a very important strategic position. In this paper, the pattern of trade between China and Indo-China Peninsula countries from 1995 to 2013 was analyzed, and trade dependence(HM index) on each other for nearly a decade was calculated. The results showed that: the trade between China and Indo-China Peninsula countries is unbalanced; Indo-China Peninsula countries depended apparently more on the Chinese market than China depended on their markets. With the implementation of "One Belt and One Road", the trade relations between China and Indo-China Peninsula countries will face many new challenges: trade imbalance will lead to issues of domestic economic operational risk, international trade friction, suspicion, spatial imbalance of trade, etc.; individual differences in HM index will lead to differences in the position and attitude of the countries in their economic and trade cooperation with China; the foreign section of the land and sea trade channel may be blocked; and the extraterritorial powers will contend for markets with China. Actively promoting the peripheral diplomatic strategy of "amity, sincerity, mutual benefit and inclusiveness", scientifically and reasonably adjusting the trade structure, vigorously pushing the development of trade facilitation and optimizing the economy layout of the Southwest border area is the effective strategy to rise to the new challenges of the trade relations between China and Indo-China Peninsula countries.