中文摘要：

运用线性倾向分析、滑动平均法、Mann-Kendall法等数理分析方法,对山西省汾河流域19个气象站1960年-2007年的逐月气温资料进行了分析。研究表明：自1960年以来,汾河流域年平均气温、平均最高和最低气温均呈波动变化趋势,并有升高趋势,递增率分别为0.32℃/10a、0.13℃/10a和0.50℃/10a。同时,气温年较差呈减小趋势,近48年的气温年较差递减率为0.37℃/10a。此外,年平均气温、平均最高和最低气温发生趋暖突变的时间分别是1993年、1996年、1981年,且近15年是流域年平均气温发生上升的主要时段。气候趋暖还表现出在冬季气温的递增速率最大的特点。流域南北年均气温变化的区域差异并不是很明显,但就各区域的季节变化而言,春冬两季的年均气温变化则表现出明显的区域差异。

英文摘要：

Based on monthly average temperature data during the period 1960-2007 from 19 stations in the Fenhe River basin, linear trend analysis, moving average methods, and Mann-Kendall were employed to analyze changing trends in temperature in the context of global warming. Results show that the annual average temperature, average maximum and average minimum temperatures in the Fenhe River basin generally increased at rates of 0.32°C/10a, 0.13°C/10a, 0.50°C/10a, respectively. The variation range of the annual temperature showed a declining trend over the recent 48 years at a rate of 0.37°C/10a. Abrupt changes of the annual average temperature, average maximum temperature, and average minimum temperature occurred in 1993, 1996, and 1981, respectively. The general warming trend of climate was taken to occur in recent 15 years. For all years considered, changes in the annual average temperature, average maximum and average minimum temperatures varied greatly. But there seemed to be a general trend that since the 1990s the averages of the annual average, maximum, and minimum temperatures were higher than the mean temperatures for the whole time series. The increasing rate of the annual average minimum temperature was significantly greater than the annual average maximum temperature, which could be attributed to the major reason leading to climate warming across the Fenhe River basin. The annual average temperatures in spring, summer, autumn, and winter showed increasing trends at rates of 0.36°C /10a, 0.08°C /10a, 0.25°C /10a, and 0.59°C/10a, respectively. The annual average maximum and minimum temperatures showed seasonal variations. The increasing trend of the annual average maximum temperature in winter was most obvious, showing a rate of 0.75°C/10a, followed by that in autumn at a rate of 0.30°C/10a. The increasing rate of annual average maximum temperature in summer was smallest. Also, the increasing trends of annual average minimum temperature in spring, autumn, and winter were very remarkable, with the maxim