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中文摘要：
中国当前经济发展既受到国内资源供给和环境容量的制约,又受到全球应对气候变化的严峻挑战,碳排放空间的不足将成为经济社会发展的刚性约束。论文界定了碳排放效率的内涵,基于随机前沿模型,对山西省1995年-2010年的碳排放效率进行了测算,并且与中部其他省份碳排放效率进行了比较分析。该方法引入随机扰动项克服了宏观统计数据不可避免存在噪声的问题,从而使得碳排放效率评价更为贴切。主要结论是：山西省1995年-2010年的碳排放效率在中部六省中效率最低,且碳排放效率呈逐年降低的趋势。在对效率作出评价基础上,论文进一步基于模拟退火算法创建了万元GDP二氧化碳排放量的预测模型,对山西省＂十二五＂规划提出的＂2015年山西省万元地区生产总值二氧化碳排放量比2010年下降17%＂的碳减排目标进行了可达性分析,结论为不可达。论文最后提出了相应的政策建议,即在保障国家能源安全的同时,实施＂以煤为基、循环高端、多元发展＂的路径,实现经济的低碳转型。
英文摘要：
In addition to constraints on domestic resource supply and environmental capacity, China’s economic development faces severe challenges from global climate change. Here, we define carbon emission efficiency as the ratio between carbon emissions from real output and optimal output. Based on stochastic frontier analysis we estimate the carbon emission efficiency for Shanxi province from 1995-2010 and these data are then compared to five other provinces in China. Our approach incorporates random disturbances to overcome the unavoidable noise in macro statistics, and results in a more appropriate evaluation of carbon emission efficiency. We found that Shanxi’s carbon emission efficiency is the lowest among the six provinces of central China, and declined continuously over the study period. Using Simulated Annealing Programming we constructed a carbon emission prediction model of Shanxi province to predict the feasibility of carbon reduction targets outlined in the‘12th Five-Year Plan for Shanxi Province’. This plan states that carbon emissions per GDP should be reduced by 17% by 2015 compared to 2010 levels. We found that carbon emissions per GDP for Shanxi can only be reduced by 13.26% . Based on this projected failure to reach the 2015 target we make a number of suggestions. First, the province should adopt a coal-based, circular-high-tech, multivariate development path and achieve low carbon transition on the condition that national energy security is guaranteed. Shanxi should capitalize on its special status as‘the reform zone of the comprehensive resource-based economy transition’. Second, the technological capability should be enhanced to improve energy utilization efficiency, strengthen low carbon competitiveness, eliminate backward production capacity, and optimize industrial structure. Third, economic leverage should be employed to steadily advance price reform for resource products, while advocating a low-carbon way of life and low-carbon society. These measures will enrich and perfect the theor
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