构建了一个基于灰关联度的两阶段财务风险灰色预警模型。第一阶段以“典型ST上市公司”财务风险指标为参照,提出了财务风险评分的灰关联度算法,得出的财务风险评分值可对上市公司当前的财务风险进行评估。第二阶段以财务风险评分为复合指标,构建上市公司财务风险预警的灰预测GM(1,1)模型,通过该模型可对非ST上市公司未来会计年度财务风险进行预测,由此可在预测到的财务灾变之前采取风险防范措施,以免上市公司进一步“ST化”。
This paper constructs a two phases grey financial alert model based on degree of grey incidence. In the first phases, it presents financial risk evaluation arithmetic, and grade can estimate the currant financial risk of a public corporation. In the second phases, it constructs a financial risk alert gray model GM ( 1,1 ), which can forecast the financial risk in the future fiscal years of no ST public corporations, therefore it can take a step to keep away financial risk before it was forecasted, lest public corporations finance get worse.