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洪水归槽影响下西江中游防洪能力分析

ISSN号：1003-1243
期刊名称：水力发电学报
时间：2014.4
页码：65-72-
分类：TV11[水利工程—水文学及水资源]
作者机构：[1]长江科学院,武汉430014, [2]武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,武汉430072, [3]株洲市水利水电勘察设计院,湖南株洲412007
相关基金：国家自然科学基金项目（51179131,51190094,50839005,50979075）：广东省水利科技创新项目成果（2011-01）
相关项目：变化环境下非一致性干旱频率计算方法研究

关键词：水文水资源, 洪水归槽, 防洪能力, 西江, hydrology and water resources, flood returning to main channel, flood control ability, the Xi River

中文摘要：

为了抵御洪水的侵害，沿江地段主要靠修建堤防进行防御。随着堤防工程的不断加高，改变了原天然河道的洪水槽蓄关系，突出表现是滞洪容积减少，洪水归槽引起洪峰和洪量序列发生变异，导致用于防洪规划和洪水灾害风险评估的洪水序列失去一致性，而防洪堤的防洪能力一再受到挑战和质疑。目前西江水系仍以堤防防洪为主，洪水归槽对堤防防洪能力的影响还缺乏系统性的研究。本文采用水文变异诊断系统和变化环境下非一致性水文频率计算方法，结合西江流域梧州站1946-2008年的实测年最大流量序列，对西江浔江段受归槽洪水影响下的堤防防洪能力进行了分析。结果显示，在洪水归槽的影响下，洪水发生的频率和量级发生了较大的变化，梧州站堤防的防洪能力有所降低：当安全超高在2．0-2．5m变化时，其右堤可以抵御的洪水标准从过去条件下的40—68年一遇，降到现状条件下的8-12年一遇，左堤则从15．23年一遇降到3-5年一遇。

英文摘要：

Levee construction is a major flood control means in the areas along the Xi river. With the increasingly higher levees, the volume of flood lagging in the main channel generally becomes much less than the past owing to the effects of flood returning to main channel, and the increasing flood peak and flood volume leave the defense ability of levees under challenge and doubt. The Xi river basin has special geographical features and this returning influence on its defense ability of levees is quite notable, but few studies focused on it. This paper calculates the levees＇ defense ability of the river under the flood returning influence, using a hydrological alteration diagnosis system and an inconsistent hydrological frequency analysis method in changing environments, based on an annual peak runoff series for the period of 1946-2008 of the Wuzhou hydrological station. The results show that the flood frequency and volume were both changed under the flood returning influence and hence resulted in considerable losses in flood control ability： a decrease in the right levee＇s flood standard from the past 40-68-yd to the present 8-12-yd under safe superelevation of 2.0m-2.5m, and a decrease in that of the left levee from the past 15-23-yd to the present 3-5-yd.