中文摘要：

借助多时相土地利用数据，采用土地利用密度法对1990年和2000年上海人口普查数据进行格网化，进而模拟上海中心城区人口密度的分布及其变化．其间采用聚类分析进行分区、分区建模、逐步剔除异常值和分街道控制等措施以提高模拟精度．在人口密度模拟的基础上，用GIS对上海人口格网数据进行简要的空间分析．用栅格叠加分析得到1990—2000年人口密度变化空间分布图，用同心圆缓冲区分析法和扇形分析法揭示人口密度变化的距离特征和方向性特征，最后将1990年和2000年度人口密度与居住用地类型进行关联，佐证了该时期上海居住条件的改善．

英文摘要：

This paper presented a simulation of the population density of the Shanghai central city in 1990 - 2000 based on the data of land use, using the method of population Data Grid Transform, to investigate the population distribution and change in the city. Some steps were in- troduced to the simulation process to improve precision, such as zoning by cluster analysis, mod- eling separately by zoning, gradually eliminating errors and precision controlling by street zones. Then the temporal and spatial characteristics of the population density change were analyzed based on GIS. Raster overlay produced a map of the population density change; concentric circle method and sector analysis method were used to show the distribution characteristics different with distances and orientations; the relationship between the population density and the residential land use shows the improvement of living condition in Shanghai from 1990 to 2000.