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京津冀生产性服务业空间分工特征及溢出效应

ISSN号：0375-5444
期刊名称：《地理学报》
时间：0
分类：F719[经济管理—产业经济]
作者机构：[1]西北工业大学人文与经法学院,西安710072, [2]北京大学政府管理学院,北京100871
相关基金：国家自然科学基金项目“我国区域空间结构演化机理、影响因素及其优化研究”（41171099）; 国家重大科研计划973项目“气候变化与气候保护中的全球经济问题”（2012CB955802）

关键词：碳排放, LMDI方法, 经济发展水平, 环境库兹涅茨曲线, 影响因素, carbon emission, LMDI method, economic development level, environment Kuznets curve, impacting factor

中文摘要：

全球气候变暖形势日趋严峻,碳减排已成为各国需共同面对的责任。分解方法一直以来都是较为常见的经济对环境影响的分析工具,但由于完全分解法对于数据精细度的高度依赖,目前还尚未出现全球尺度下包含经济发展因素的碳排放分解研究。因此,对受到广泛认可的LMDI完全分解法进行修正,对全球碳排放进行关于人口规模、经济发展水平、产业结构和技术进步等影响因素的贡献分解,并在不同发展水平国家集团的视角下进行深入对比分析。研究认为：第一,全球整体碳排放中人口规模的贡献在逐步降低,而经济发展水平增长的贡献则日益强化。第二,人口规模变动贡献多为正效应,且随国家发展水平提高,对碳排放的影响逐步降低;产业结构贡献随国家发展水平的提高显示先上升后下降的影响作用;技术进步水平对各国均呈现负向效应。第三,随着国家发展水平的提升,经济发展水平对碳排放的影响将呈现倒U型趋势特征,在实证层面上佐证了环境库兹涅茨曲线的存在性。

英文摘要：

Globalwarming has become a serious problem,and carbon mitigation is the common responsibility of all countries. Decomposition methods have been the common environment analysis tools on the economic impact,but due to the complete decomposition method＇s highly dependent on data precision,there is not research of carbon decomposition contain factors of economic developmentof global scale. Based on LMDI equation which is widely used,this paper decomposed the carbon emission under global scale into population,development,economic structure and technology and carried out a comparative analysis in the context of different developing levels of countries. This research modified the traditional LMDI equation and decomposed the carbon emission under the global scale including economic structure. Thus,the main conclusions are as followed： firstly,under the global scale,the contribution of population is declining and the contribution of regional development is gradually strengthened; secondly,under the background of different developing levels of countries,the contribution of population is always positive,and its impact is reducing with developing of countries; Contribution of industrial structure shows up and then drop impact along with the improvement of national development; The advances in technology level has a significant negative effect on all countries; thirdly,the comparative analysis of the contributions of development shows its impact on carbon emission represents inverted-U trend with the increasing of regional development,proving the existence of Environmental Kuznets Curve on the empirical level.

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