中文摘要：

基于生态足迹模型,计算了中国1995-2006年人均生态足迹和生物承载力的各构成组分。运用统计—动力学建模方法,构建生态足迹和生物承载力各组分构成比例变化的普适预测模型。结果表明：①1995-2006年,中国人均生态足迹构成以能源足迹和耕地足迹为主,耕地、林地、建设等足迹比例在波动中不断下降,草地、水域足迹比例先上升后下降,能源足迹比例不断增加;人均生物承载力构成以耕地为主,林地、建设、水域承载力比例相差不多,草地承载力比例最小,其中耕地、草地承载力比例不断增加,林地、水域、建设等承载力比例不断下降,且变化幅度均很小。②2007-2015年,耕地、林地足迹比例继续下降,草地、水域、能源足迹比例将逐渐上升,建设足迹比例将在下降一段时间后出现增加趋势。耕地、林地、草地等承载力比例将不断增加,其中耕地、林地承载力比例增加幅度很小,草地承载力比例相对增幅较大;水域、建设承载力比例均呈下降趋势。文章还探讨了可能导致中国人均生态足迹和生物承载力构成比例出现上述变化的原因,给出相应的政策建议,并分析了二者之间的内在变化规律。研究结果对指导我国调整产业结构、土地利用规划和改善生态环境有较重要的启示和借鉴意义。

英文摘要：

Per capita ecological footprint（EF） and biocapcity（BC） by component in China during the period 1995-2006 are calculated based on ecological footprint model.The series prediction models of component percentages of EF or BC are constructed with the modeling technique of statistic-dynamics, i.e .Thecomponent percentages of per capita EF and BC in China during the period 1996-2015 are forecasted with the prediction models, and some corresponding policy recommendations are given in this paper.The results show that：（1） The component percentages of cropland, forest, and built-up land footprints decrease in China during the period 1996-2006, and those of grazing land, water area, and energy land increase consistently.The component percentages of cropland and grazing land biocapacities increase, and those of forest, water area, and built-up land decrease.（2） The component percentages of cropland and forest footprints will still decrease in China during the period 2007-2015, and those of grazing land, water area, and energy land will increase.The component percentage of built-up land will increase after it decreases for some consecutive years.The component percentages of cropland, forest, and grazing land biocapacities will increase, and those of water area and built-up land will decrease.（3） The decreasing component percentage of cropland footprint may be related to the reduction of direct demand for grain, and increasing grazing land, and water area to consumption growth for meat, milk, eggs, fish, etc.The decreasing component percentage of forest footprint may be related to the conversion of cropland to forestland.The increasing component percentage of energy land footprint may be related to consistent economic growth, and rapid automobile development.The component percentage of cropland biocapacity will be improved by protecting cropland and developing crop husbandry techniques.The increasing consumption of meat, milk and eggs could promote technology innovation of forage industry, and improve its