中文摘要：

使用西南地区1960．2010年14探空站高空气象资料和对应的14个地面观测站的5个气温要素和2个降水要素资料，通过Mann．Kendall检验，线性趋势法、相关分析法及R／S分析方法，分析了西南地区0℃层高度的时间变化特征和空间分布情况以及0℃层高度与气温、降水、海拔的相关性分析，并预测了0℃层高度未来变化趋势及持续性强度。结果表明：（1）西南地区0℃层高度年代际变化表现为自20世纪70年代后突然降低之后逐渐升高的趋势，各季节年代际变化也不尽相同；（2）西南地区0℃层高度在年际变化方面，在全年、秋季和冬季处于上升趋势，以冬季变化趋势最为明显且通过了显著性检验，春季和夏季处于不明显的下降趋势；（3）西南地区0℃层高度的空间分布表现为由南向北逐渐降低的趋势，夏季较为均匀，从年际变化空间分布来看，年、季节变化空间差异也比较明显；（4）西南地区各气温和降水要素表现出非常明显的空间差异，与降水各要素相比较，气温各要素与0℃层高度相关性更显著；从0℃层高度与海拔高度相关性来看，夏季0℃层高度与海拔高度相关性最好，而与其他季节及年的相关性不明显。（5）未来趋势预测表明，西南地区年、季节0℃层高度变化趋势与过去一致，并且大部分站点保持较强的持续性。

英文摘要：

Based on the aerological meteorological data at 14 sounding stations in Southwest China from 1960 to 2010, as well as the corresponding 5 temperature and 2 precipitation factors measured at ground, Mann-Kendall test, linear trend estimate, correlation analysis and R/S analysis were applied. The changes in spatial and temporal distribution of 0 ℃ isotherm height and their relationships to temperature, precipitation and altitude were analyzed, and the future trends and constancy were predicted. The results indicated that the 0 ℃ isotherm height increased after a sudden decrease in the 1970s, and the patterns of different seasons varied. An increasing trend can be found in the annual, auturnn and winter series, and only the trend in winter is statistically significant. A latitude gradient is generally shown from south to north with a decreasing pattern, and the distribution in summer is relatively even. The diversity of annual and seasonal series can also be detected at a spatial view. Significant spatial diversity for temperature and precipitation can be found, and the 0 ℃ isotherm height correlated well with temperature, instead of precipitation. The correlation between isotherm height in summer and altitude is more significant than in other seasonal and annual series. The changing trends in annual and seasonal series can be maintained in future, and evidenced constancies can be found at most of the stations.