中文摘要：

基于多普勒雷达和相应的雨量计资料，利用卡尔曼滤波校准法对分组Z-I关系估算的雷达降雨进行同化，结合新安江模型，提出采用增长模繁殖法对雷达监测降雨量资料进行扰动，定量分析了模型输入误差对径流模拟的影响。经过湖北省白莲河流域的实际应用研究表明，卡尔曼滤波校准法估算降水量的精度比Z-I，关系法有了明显的提高，其相应的洪水预报效果也都优于Z-I，关系；提出的增长模繁殖法对雷达监测降雨量资料产生的扰动输入误差在经过模型的传递后有增大的趋势。

英文摘要：

Based on Doppler radar and the corresponding rain gauge data, assimilate the radar remote sensing precipitation from Z-I relations by using Kalman filter calibration method, propose the breeding of growing modes and get the radar telemetry rainfall da- ta disturbance, then quantitatively analyze the runoff simulation effect of the model input errors. Combined with Xin＇anjiang model, the practical application in the Bailian River Basin in Hubei Province have shown that the rainfall estimation of the Kalman filter calibration method has higher accuracy than the Z~I relations also significantly improved. The disturbance input error has an method, and its corresponding effects of flood forecasting has been increasing trend after the propagation of the flood forecasting model.