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2010年我国经济形势展望

ISSN号：1001-4098
期刊名称：《系统工程》
时间：0
分类：F124.7[经济管理—世界经济] TU984[建筑科学—城市规划与设计]
作者机构：[1]中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院中国科学院预测科学研究中心,北京100190, [2]安徽大学经济学院,合肥230039, [3]东北财经大学经济计量分析与预测研究中心,东北财经大学数学与数量经济学院,大连116025, [4]中信证券风险控制部,北京100004
相关基金：本研究得到国家自然科学基金项目（70871109和70673009）资助

关键词：经济形势, 国际金融危机, 经济复苏, 预测, economic trend, intemational financial crisis, economic recovery, economic forecasting

中文摘要：

2010年我国经济将在当前逐步企稳回升的基础上，继续保持平稳增长．预计GDP增长约为9．5％，工业增加值增长约为13．5％，城镇固定资产投资额增长约为24％，社会消费品零售总额增长约为20％，出口增长约为13．0％，进口增长约为15．5％，进出口总额增长约为14．1％，居民消费价格指数大约上涨2．5％。针对经济形势和未来社会发展目标，建议：继续发挥政府改善投资结构的引导作用：加强金融监管，防范金融风险；切实加大保障性住房供给，遏制房价过快上涨：遏制垄断行业人为涨价，减轻通货膨胀压力；深化收入分配制度改革，提高居民收入，提高消费在内需中的比重；顺应“低碳经济”发展趋势，持续推进“节能减排”。

英文摘要：

Looking ahead for 2010, it may be believed that China＇s economy will keep a stable growth based on the current gradual recovery. It can be predicted that the yearly GDP growth rate is about 9.5%, the growth rate of the industrial added value is about 13.5%, the growth rate of fixed asset investment in city and town is about 24%, the growth rate of the total retail value of the social consuming goods is about 20%, the growth rate of the exports is about 13.0%, the growth rate of the import is about 15.5%, and the total growth rate of the export and the import is about 14.1%, and the CPI will increase about 2.5%. In the light of the economic trend and the goal of China＇s social development, the authors propose the following suggestions： a） the government continues to play a dominant role in improving investment structure; b） strengthening financial regulation and control to prevent financial risk; c） significantly increasing the supply of welfare housing, restrict too fast growth of house price; d） constraining the artificial price-hikes in monopoly industries to reduce the inflation pressure; e） deepening the reform in income-allocation, enhancing the growth of household income, and raising the ratio of consumption in domestic demand; f） following the international trend of low-carbonic economy, keeping on propelling the policy of ＂energy-saving and emission-reducing＂.

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