中文摘要：

本文从现实的政府行政支出出发，设计政府成本理论模型，以预测未来政府成本一行政支出的基本标准．并分析中国政府成本的基本情况，提出相应的治理依据。基本思路是：以中国政府1978—2006年的实际支出资料为依据，建立相应的理论模型并检验，进而根据30年的实践，预测未来中国政府成本应控制的基本底线。

英文摘要：

Based on the reality of government administration expenditures, this paper designs some theoretical models to predict the fulure government cost, i.e. the fundamental standard of administrative expenses, to analyze the basic situation of Chinese Government cost, and to provide with the corresponding governance gists. The basic idea of this paper is to establish and test those theoretical models based on actual expenditure information between 1978 and 2006. Then it is possible to predict the bottom line of the Chinese government cost in accordance with the past 30 years practices.