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中文摘要：
突发事件不仅自身可以造成严重的灾害后果，还能引发次生事件。虽然突发事件的发生具有突发性．不可避免，但如果事先知道可能存在的连锁反应．则其引发的次生事件就可以预防。基于灾害系统论，本文在单一突发事件发生机理的基础上，研究了突发事件连锁反应与孕灾环境的关系，归纳出了四类突发事件的孕灾环境，提出了突发事件之间的连锁反应机理。构建了突发事件连锁反应模型，并将该模型应用于突发事件连锁反应实例的仿真模拟。利用该模型。可以找出当前区域可能存在的突发事件连锁反应，为事先做好断链减灾工作提供决策支持。
英文摘要：
Emergencies can not only cause serious consequences, but also trigger secondary events. We can＇t get wen prepared for the occurrence of the unexpected events, but can have early preventions of secondary disasters as long as we find the chain-reaction in advance. Based on the principle of disaster system, the occurrence mechanism of a single event as well as the relationship between chain-reaction of emergencies and disaster-pregnant environment is studied. Besides, disaster-pregnant environment for the four types of emergencies is provided. Then, we propose the chain-reaction mechanism of emergencies on the basis of the research of disaster-pregnant environment, and then build an emergency chain-reaction model. Finally, we verify the model by simulation examples. Results show that the model could be used to find the potential chain-reactions in the current region, providing decision support for chain-cutting disaster mitigation beforehand.
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