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中文摘要：
以大量的数据分析了贵州省1989～2005年的耕地、人口和粮食变化情况;利用粮食平衡系数进行测算分析,分析了1989～2005年贵州省9个地市的粮食盈缺情况和粮食安全空间格局。在此基础上结合人口预测模型和时间序列平滑预测方法,预测贵州省各地市未来10a的粮食安全状况。
英文摘要：
The state of cultivated land in Province is complicated and various,and the contradiction of people and land,which has aggravated with the rapid economy growing since 1980＇ s,has already been an important problem in regional sustainable development.In this article,through a large a mount of data,the variation condition of cultivated land,population and grain from 1989 to 2005 in Guizhou Province is analyzed,and the balance coefficient is calculated.It is utilized to analyze the grain situation of nine districts in Province.Furthermore,the population forecast model and Time Series smoothing forecast method is used to predict the balance situation of grain and patterns of grain security in different districts in next ten years.
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