中文摘要：

基于藻类与食植鱼类的生态动力学模型，采用非线性动力学方法，确定了典型控制参数的分岔区域．运用Copula方法，通过历史数据得到控制参数的概率分布．以分岔区域作为不同状态，建立了系统状态转移的马尔科夫链模型运用蒙特卡罗方法计算转移概率矩阵，得到多稳态转换的平稳概率，并得到了使期望状态平稳概率最大化的控制参数值

英文摘要：

Based on the ecological dynamics model consisting of algae and herbivorous fish,different bifurcation regions for the control parameters were obtained with nonlinear dynamical analysis. Then with Copula method and field data,the probability distribution for the bifurcation parameters was obtained. Markov chain model for the state transition was constructed with considering bifurcation regions as different states. Using Monte Carlo,the transition probability matrix and stationary probability of the regime shifts were achieved. Last ,the values of the bifurcation parameters which maximize the stationary probability of the desired state were calculated.