使用线性与非线性Granger因果关系检验对不同阶段的全球主要股市间(包括美国、英国、日本、香港以及中国大陆)均值(收益)以及波动(风险)溢出效应及其变异性特征进行实证分析.研究发现:股市间的均值和风险溢出具有非线性特征;全球股市信息与风险联动性、互动性不断加强,传导路径也更加复杂;中国大陆股票市场在开放度、信息传导效率以及国际影响力方面朝着良性方向发展.
Linear and nonlinear Granger causality test methods are used to detect the mean(return) and volatility(risk) spillover effects and their time-varying characteristics among the global main equity markets,including those in the U.S.,U.K.,Japan,Hong Kong and Mainland China.The empirical results indicate that: 1) There exist nonlinear mean/volatility spillover effects among the equity markets;2) The linkages among the equity markets are becoming more and more interactive and complex;3) The development of Mainland China equity market is in a good condition in aspects of openness,information conduction efficiency and international influence.