中文摘要：

应用林窗模型LINKAGES分别对小兴安岭原始林不同年龄林分在5种气候变暖情景下的未来演替动态进行了模拟预测．5种气候变暖情景分别为：OSU、GISS、GFDL、UKMO和CGCM2．不同年龄林分的运行结果均表明：在OSU、GISS情景下，温度升高较平缓，小兴安岭的主要树种分布基本保持现有状态，总生物量有升高趋势；在GFDL、UKMO温度大幄度升高情景下，小兴安岭森林不能适应生态环境的急剧改变，存在全部衰退的可能；而CGCM2情景下，红松生物量先上升后下降，红松针阔混交林将逐渐演替为以色木槭和蒙古栎占优势的阔叶混交林．不同年龄林分问比较发现：当增温幅度未超过红松的耐受范围时，过熟林对气候变化的抗干扰能力显著优于其他林龄类型，但总生物量水平略低；中幼林对气候变化的适应能力最强，能够在气候变化过程中朝着最有利于充分利用光照、养分等环境因子的方向演替，树种组成达到稳定后的总生物量水平通常最高．反之，当超过红松的耐受范围时，过熟林的抗干扰能力和恢复能力均下降，表现为林分的迅速衰退及总生物量的明显波动；中幼林对气候变化的适应能力仍然较强，演替动态最平稳．

英文摘要：

The LINKAGES model was used to make simulation predictions of future succession dynamics of different stands with various age classes in the primeval forests of Xiaoxinganling Mountains under five climate change scenarios. The five climate change scenarios were OSU, GISS, GFDL, UKMO and CGCM2. The simulation results for all simulated stands indicated that the distributions of major tree species maintained the current level, while the total biomass increased due to the gentle increase of temperature under OSU and GISS scenarios. Under the GFDL and UKMO scenarios with temperature increasing by a larger margin, the entire forest of all age classes did not adapt to the rapid changes of climate and degenerated. However, under the scenario of CGCM2, the biomass of Pinus koraiensis increased initially and decreased at the later stage. The current mixed coniferous and broadleaved Korean pine forests may gradually transform to broadleaved mixed forest dominated by Acer rnono-Quercus rnongolica. The comparison of different stand age classes showed that the overmature stands had stronger resistance to climate change than that of the others, while the range of climate warming was within the tolerance of P. koraiensis and its biomass level tended to be low. Young- middle aged stands could best adapt to the climate change and tended to make good use of light and nutrients,and its biomass usually reached the highest level after the composition of tree species becoming stable. On the contrary, when the range of climate warming was greater than the P. koraiensis＇ tolerance, the recovering ability of overmature stands were both reduced, which leading to the fast degeneration resilience and of stands and apparent fluctuations of total biomass. Young-middle aged stands still had better adaptation to the climate change and the succession trends of them were most stable.