大型水库生态风险评价是生态环境保护与改善工作的重要组成部分,本文以澜沧江流域的糯扎渡水库为例,在识别河谷区陆生生态系统的生态风险源及受体基础上,构建了可对生态风险复杂机理关系加以描述的多层次风险受体——多风险源的评价指标体系;考虑到风险评价指标种类多样、度量标准不一且部分指标难于量化及人类对生态系统认知程度的模糊性,构建了基于RRM(Relative Risk Model,相对风险模型)思想的多级模糊综合评价模型。计算结果表明,模型能定量给出各层受体的生态风险模糊评价分值,经比较分析后可为糯扎渡水库区域陆生生态环境改善的方案设计提供重要参考,有助于负生态效应的逐步减缓以及进一步促进水库所在区域社会、经济、生态环境效益发挥与可持续利用,为大型水库的生态风险评价研究工作做出有益尝试。
Assessment on ecological risks of large reservoirs is an important part of eco-environmental protection and improvement, but few of its studies have been reported. This paper constructs a multi-level risk receptor or an evaluation index system of multiple risk sources that describes the complicated relationships and mechanism in ecological risks, on the basis of identifying these sources and receptor of the valley area of terrestrial ecosystems in a case study of the Nuozhadu reservoir on the Lancang River. We followed the thoughts of relative risk model (RRM) and developed a multi-level fuzzy model of comprehensive evaluation to handle the variety of risk evaluation indicators and measures, the difficulties in quantification of some indicators, and the fuzziness in human cognition of ecological system. Results show that this model can give a quantitative score of fuzzy evaluation on the ecological risks for each receptor. By comparative analysis, they provide crucial information to the scheme design of eco-environmental improvement for the reservoir area. This contributes to gradual slowdown of the negative ecological effect, further promotion of social, economic, ecological and environmental benefits, and sustainable utilization of the reservoir area, making beneficial attempts for study on ecological risk assessment of large reservoirs.