用Z指数确定湛江月降水量的旱涝等级,并对旱涝特征进行分析,结果表明:湛江地区大涝、极涝、大旱、极旱出现的机率大。一年中,雨季的后期(9-10月)和旱季的后期(2-3月)旱涝出现的机率大;雨季的中期(6-7月)和旱季的前期(11-12月)旱涝出现的机率小。全年,涝年景比旱年景多,雨季相反;全年和雨季,多数年份旱涝相继出现。50、60年代为偏旱型,70、80、90年代为偏涝型,2001-2005年为偏旱型,从70年代到2005年,湛江的旱涝表现为从偏涝型向偏旱型转变的趋势。湛江旱涝的发生有7-8、10-11、13-14个月的振荡周期。
The characteristics of the monthly drought-flood identified with Z-index were analyzed in Zhanjiang. The results show that there is high frequency of very drought, utmost drought, very flood, utmost flood. The frequency of drought-flood is high during later phase of raining season (September and October) and later phase of drought season (February and March), is lower during middle phase of raining (June and July) and early phase of drought season (November and December). It is common that drought and flood occur in one year. There were more droughts in 1950s, 1960s and from 2001 to 2005, there were more floods in 1970s, 1980s and 1990s. It has been changed from more droughts to more floods since 1970s. The droughts and floods have periods of 7-8 months, 10-11 months, and 13-14 months.