中文摘要：

大型灌区中的小水电群优化运行方案研究对促进区域清洁能源利用、减少区域碳排放和保护生态环境具有重要意义。本研究以位于中国安徽境内的淠河灌区为例，开展气候变化条件下大型灌区水资源系统模拟和小水电群运行优化研究。结果表明，随着未来区域降雨和气温的微量增加，按现状工程运行方案系统不能满足设计期城市供水保证率要求，而水电站群年均总发电量增加几可忽略。经优化设计后，佛子岭水库汛限库容提高6．2％，供水专线流量方案变更为25．7m3／s，非灌溉期充止库容0．98x10^8m3，灌溉期充止库容为0．59x10^8m3，则水电站群年均可多发电115x10^8kW·h，使灌区供水、发电系统获得可观的社会及经济效益。

英文摘要：

Optimal operation of small hydropower stations in large-scale irrigation region is of great significance to promote the use of clean energy, reduce regional carbon emission, and protect local environments. This paper presents a study to simulate the performance of water resources system and to optimize the operation plan of a small hydropower station group in climate change scenarios, via a case study of a large-scale irrigation region, the Pihe irrigation district in Arthui, China. Results show that with a slight increase in rainfall and a slight temperature rise in the future, the current system operation plan will not be able to meet the requirement of assurance rate for urban water supply and the increase in the total power generation will be negligible. Through optimization, however, the annual average power generation will increase by 115x10^4kW·h if all the following conditions are satisfied： the flood control capacity of the Foziling reservoir increases by 6.2%, the flow plan of water supply line changes to 25.7ma/s, and the upper limits of recharging capacity of the urban reservoir in non-irrigation and irrigation periods are altered to 0.98x 10^8 m3 and 0.59x10^8 m3 respectively. These results indicate considerable social and economic benefits of the irrigation system.