能源供应安全和使用安全是能源安全的两大组成部分。我国能源安全现状不容乐观,很大程度上是由于不合理的能源消费结构造成的。本文将能源供应安全和使用安全作为衡量能源安全的目标,从传统能源和新能源的能源消费结构出发,对1980年-2007年以来的各项指标展开回归分析。实证结果表明:①单位新能源消费结构的变化对能源安全的贡献能力远大于传统能源;②自1980年以来,我国能源安全整体上呈现出"先抑后扬"的走势;③我国能源安全形势依然严峻,突出表现在能源使用对环境造成的巨大的负面影响。最后给出政策建议。
Needs for energy security and impacts of the energy consumption structure are two major challenges in the 21st century.According to the International Energy Agency's(IEA) definition,there are two main parts of energy security:supply security and usage security.Supply security means a stable supply of required energy,while usage security means an environmental friendly usage of energy.Since 1980,China has launched a lot of programs to ensure the energy security,but it is still severe.Meanwhile,there are a series of problems regarding the energy consumption structure.First,the extremely high dependence(over 50%)on imported oil makes China quite vulnerable to oil crisis.Oil consumption became a critical issue for China's energy supply security.Second,coal is considered the most severe energy contaminant to the environment,but it is the largest energy resource used in China.Extensive use of coal has resulted in significant negative impacts on China's energy usage security.In the context,renewable energy tends to be a good choice for enhancing the country's energy security,but not all kinds of renewable energy resources are suitable for China.In one word,the energy security situation is still not optimistic in China largely because of unreasonable energy consumption structure.There are rarely empirical studies on the relationship between the energy consumption structure and energy security in the literature.To bridge the gap,this paper aims to develop a regression method to explain this relationship using data associated with energy consumption structures and energy security indices during the period from 1980 to 2007.The energy consumption structure is based upon the energy from a variety of sources(e.g.,coal,oil,natural gas,nuclear-electricity,hydro-electricity energy,and other renewable energy sources),while the energy security indices take into account various factors(e.g.,energy production,net imports,self-sufficiency,energy intensity,carbon intensity,energy-carbon intensity,and carbon foo