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中国能源消费结构与能源安全关联的实证分析
  • ISSN号:1007-7588
  • 期刊名称:资源科学
  • 时间:0
  • 页码:1692-1697
  • 语言:中文
  • 分类:TK01[动力工程及工程热物理]
  • 作者机构:[1]南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院,南京210016, [2]江苏科技大学经济与管理学院,镇江212003
  • 相关基金:国家社会科学基金重大项目(编号:08&ZD046); 国家自然科学基金项目(编号:70873058);国家自然科学基金应急项目(编号:70941038); 江苏省普通高校研究生科研创新计划(编号:CX09B_052R)
  • 相关项目:考虑影响因素交互作用和能源回弹效应的能效政策分析模型
中文摘要:

能源供应安全和使用安全是能源安全的两大组成部分。我国能源安全现状不容乐观,很大程度上是由于不合理的能源消费结构造成的。本文将能源供应安全和使用安全作为衡量能源安全的目标,从传统能源和新能源的能源消费结构出发,对1980年-2007年以来的各项指标展开回归分析。实证结果表明:①单位新能源消费结构的变化对能源安全的贡献能力远大于传统能源;②自1980年以来,我国能源安全整体上呈现出"先抑后扬"的走势;③我国能源安全形势依然严峻,突出表现在能源使用对环境造成的巨大的负面影响。最后给出政策建议。

英文摘要:

Needs for energy security and impacts of the energy consumption structure are two major challenges in the 21st century.According to the International Energy Agency's(IEA) definition,there are two main parts of energy security:supply security and usage security.Supply security means a stable supply of required energy,while usage security means an environmental friendly usage of energy.Since 1980,China has launched a lot of programs to ensure the energy security,but it is still severe.Meanwhile,there are a series of problems regarding the energy consumption structure.First,the extremely high dependence(over 50%)on imported oil makes China quite vulnerable to oil crisis.Oil consumption became a critical issue for China's energy supply security.Second,coal is considered the most severe energy contaminant to the environment,but it is the largest energy resource used in China.Extensive use of coal has resulted in significant negative impacts on China's energy usage security.In the context,renewable energy tends to be a good choice for enhancing the country's energy security,but not all kinds of renewable energy resources are suitable for China.In one word,the energy security situation is still not optimistic in China largely because of unreasonable energy consumption structure.There are rarely empirical studies on the relationship between the energy consumption structure and energy security in the literature.To bridge the gap,this paper aims to develop a regression method to explain this relationship using data associated with energy consumption structures and energy security indices during the period from 1980 to 2007.The energy consumption structure is based upon the energy from a variety of sources(e.g.,coal,oil,natural gas,nuclear-electricity,hydro-electricity energy,and other renewable energy sources),while the energy security indices take into account various factors(e.g.,energy production,net imports,self-sufficiency,energy intensity,carbon intensity,energy-carbon intensity,and carbon foo

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期刊信息
  • 《资源科学》
  • 中国科技核心期刊
  • 主管单位:中国科学院
  • 主办单位:中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
  • 主编:成升魁
  • 地址:北京安定门外大屯路甲11号
  • 邮编:100101
  • 邮箱:zykx@igsnrr.ac.cn
  • 电话:010-64889446
  • 国际标准刊号:ISSN:1007-7588
  • 国内统一刊号:ISSN:11-3868/N
  • 邮发代号:82-4
  • 获奖情况:
  • 国内外数据库收录:
  • 日本日本科学技术振兴机构数据库,中国中国人文社科核心期刊,中国中国科技核心期刊,中国北大核心期刊(2004版),中国北大核心期刊(2008版),中国北大核心期刊(2011版),中国北大核心期刊(2014版),中国北大核心期刊(2000版)
  • 被引量:42316