中文摘要：

农业土地利用政策的实施能够很大程度上影响区域农业生产方式和发展路径。构建了一个土地利用政策效应的多准则分析框架,并以上海市淀山湖地区作为案例区,从社会、经济和生态方面建立综合评价指标体系,应用情景分析方法,采用Techno GIN模型作为评价工具,分别对基础情景、基准情景和3种不同政策干预情景下的农业土地利用效应进行了模拟和评价。结果显示,测土配方施肥政策使农民提高了施肥的钾氮比,同时对提高水稻产量起到了一定的作用,但对氮的总投入量及淋失量的降低作用较为微弱。而精细养分管理技术在使投入的钾氮比更为合理的同时,也降低了氮的总投入量及淋失量,但过多的劳动力投入需求限制了这一技术的推广和普及。适度规模经营政策的主要作用是减少劳动力使用量,为农民提供更多的外出就业机会。该研究的方法框架可为评估和预判不同农业政策的土地利用效应提供理论支撑。

英文摘要：

Implementation of agricultural land use policies may greatly impact regional agriculture in production mode and development path. A case study of the Dianshan Lake region of Shanghai was performed using a multi-criteria analysis framework for land use policy effects and a comprehensive index system encompassing societal,economic and ecological factors established in the study,to simulate and evaluate effects of agricultural land use in different scenarios（ basic scenario,benchmark scenario and scenarios of three different policies）,with the scenario analysis method and Techno GIN model. Results show that the policy of soil-testing-based fertilizer recommendation encourages the farmers to raise K / N ratio in fertilization,and as a result,the yield of rice increases somewhat,but the policy does not significantly reduce total N input and consequent N leaching. However,the policy of site-specific nutrient management（ SSNM） further rationalizes the K / N ratio,while reducing total N input and consequent N leaching,but it calls for too much labor,which limits implementation and popularization of the policy. The major effect of the moderate-scale management policy is reduction of labor input,thus freeing more rural labor for off-farm employment. The methodological framework as presented here proves to be a useful tool for evaluation and prediction of agricultural land use effects in China,and the findings in this study may serve as reference for the scientific management of suburban agricultural sustainable development in Shanghai.