中文摘要：

为了分析江西省南新联圩防洪保护区在圩提溃决后洪水在区内的演进过程,根据南新联圩防洪保护区周围湖泊、河流及圩区情况,建立了模拟保护区内洪水演进的MIKE21模型。分别采用2010年和2012年实测洪水资料对模型进行率定和验证,结果表明模型具有较高的模拟精度。在赣江50 a一遇洪水叠加湖口22.5 m洪水位（1954年型）的工况下,利用所建立的模型对防洪保护区内的淹没水深、流速和洪水演进过程等进行计算分析,获得了南新联圩防洪保护区发生溃堤后的受灾发展情况。研究成果可为南新联圩防洪预警及时发布、转移财产、逃生避险等提供技术支撑。

英文摘要：

To analyze the flood routing process in Nanxinlianwei polder area in Jiangxi Province in the case of dyke break, in the light of the surrounding conditions of lake, river and polder area, MIKE21 model for the polder area was established and the model was verified with the measured flood data in 2010 and 2012 in a relatively high accuracy＊ In the case of 50 year frequency flood of Ganjiang River plus 22. 5 m level in the Changjiang River at Poyang Lake outlet, the water depth, flow velocity, routing process and other factors in the flooding area were analyzed and the disaster evolution in the polder area was obtained. The analy-sis results can provide technical support for flood control, timely warming, property transferring and people escape for the polder area.