中文摘要：

高速铁路开通初期，合理估计客流量是科学制定动车组开行计划的基础。相对规划设计期的客流预测，运营期的客流分析与预测要求的精度更高。基于Logit模型，构建了高速铁路转移客流量的计算模型和计算方法，并以武广高速铁路为例，应用该方法计算了航空、公路、铁路既有线的相应客流转移量。运营结果表明：利用该模型与方法所得客流量与实际客流量相吻合。

英文摘要：

In the beginning of the high - speed railway operation, making EMU starting plan scientifically. The analysis and forecast be more accurate than that in planning period. Through modifying and method of transferring passenger in high - speed railway reasonable estimate of traffic is the basis of of the passenger in operation was required to the MNL of Logit model, the counting model were set up. Taking Wuhan--Guangzhou High - speed railway as an example, using this model to count the amount of passenger in aviation, highway and rail- way, the operation result verifies the calaulation of MNL of Logit model.