中文摘要：

选取太湖流域作为研究区,利用2001和2010年的MODIS土地利用数据,以及1991—2012年降雨资料,采用L-THIA(Long-Term Hydrological Impact Assessment)模型对流域近年来的径流过程进行模拟,探讨土地利用变化对径流的影响.结果表明:从2001年到2010年,耕地面积由59.3%减少到57.7%;草地面积由8.9%减少到7.3%;裸地/荒地面积由0.5%增加到1.7%;滩涂面积由1.4%增加到2.5%.在2001年土地利用条件下,模型模拟的1991—2012年均径流量为6.03×109 m3;而在2010年土地利用条件下,年均径流量为6.66×109 m3,径流变化主要由裸地/荒地以及滩涂两种土地利用类型变化引起且由土地利用变化引起的年均径流量增加了9.4%.

英文摘要：

Changes in underlying surface in a watershed due to changes in land use have significant effect on runoff process.The Taihu basin was studied here.Land use data from 2001 2010,precipitation data from 1991 2012 were fed into L-THIA model to simulate the runoff process.Impact of changes in land use on runoff was analyzed.Cultivated area was found to be reduced from 5 9.3% to 5 7.7%,grass land area reduced from 8.9% to 7.33% from 2001 to 2010.On the other hand,barren land and costal wetland increased from 0.5% to 1.7%,and 1.4% to 2.5%,respectively.For land use from 2001 2010,simulated average annual runoff from 1991 2010 was found to be 6.03×109 m3 and 6.66×109 m3 ,respectively.Changes in runoff were due mainly to changes in barren land and costal wetland,annual runoff increased by 9.4% due to changes in land use.